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Free Token Unlock Dilution Calculator

🔓 Tokenomics Tool

Token Unlock
Simulator

Assess the supply dilution and estimated price impact of upcoming token unlock events.

Supply Dilution
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Est. Price Impact
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New Circulating Supply
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Est. New Price
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Dilution Severity
Low (<5%)Moderate (5–15%)High (>15%)

Find this on CoinGecko or the project's tokenomics page

USD
⚠️ Disclaimer
This is a simplified theoretical model. Real price impact depends on market depth, whether the unlock is already priced in, and whether large holders actually choose to sell.

Understanding Token Unlocks and Supply Dilution

A token unlock is when previously locked tokens — held by investors, team members or the foundation — become available for sale. These tokens were granted at lower prices during seed rounds or are part of vesting schedules for project contributors. When large unlocks occur, they can create significant sell pressure.

This calculator shows the dilution percentage: what fraction of the existing circulating supply the unlock represents. A 10% unlock means the market must absorb 10% more supply — which, if demand is constant, theoretically puts 10% downward pressure on price.

When evaluating any token investment, always check its unlock schedule on TokenUnlocks.app, Messari, or the project's documentation. Watch for large cliff unlocks, high percentage of supply still locked, and imminent team or investor unlock events.

Frequently Asked Questions

In most projects, 50–80% of total tokens are locked at launch, gradually vesting over 2–4 years for investors and 3–5 years for team members. Projects with high FDV (Fully Diluted Valuation) relative to market cap signal large future unlocks.
Not always. If the unlock is small relative to circulating supply (<5%), or if market demand is strong, prices can hold or even rise. Impacts are most severe when the unlock is large (>10% of supply), the market is illiquid, and holders immediately begin selling.
A cliff unlock is when all tokens from a vesting period become available at once. For example, a 1-year cliff means nothing releases for 12 months, then all vested tokens become available simultaneously — causing the sharpest supply shock. These are the most dangerous events to watch for.
Circulating supply is the number of tokens currently tradeable. Total supply includes locked tokens. Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) = Total Supply × Current Price. A high FDV relative to market cap indicates massive future dilution potential.
Resources: TokenUnlocks.app (dedicated tracker), Messari.io (project profiles), CoinGecko (supply schedules), and the project's official tokenomics documentation or whitepaper. For Ethereum-based tokens, on-chain data from Dune Analytics shows vesting contract balances.
It depends on the magnitude and context. A 5% unlock for a project with strong on-chain activity may be easily absorbed. A 30% unlock dominated by early VCs who bought at a fraction of current price is a significant red flag. Assess: who is unlocking, how much, and what their cost basis is.